Press Release: Wednesday 28 May 2025
Minister for Health welcomes publication of ESRI’s Health Service Capacity Review report on future capacity requirements for public acute hospitals
Minister for Health, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD, has today welcomed publication of the first of three Health Service Capacity Review reports produced by the ESRI on behalf of the Department of Health. The report projects future demand for public acute hospitals in Ireland to 2040, indicating that a substantial increase in capacity will continue to be required to meet the demands of our growing and ageing population.
ESRI’s independent report sets out acute bed projections to 2040, with a range of 5,091 to 7,780 additional in-patient and day-patient beds required. It also projects an increase in ED attendances of between 333,000 and 444,000 by 2040 from a baseline of 1.6 million, and an increase of 950,000 to 1,298,000 out-patient department attendances from a baseline of 4.56 million.
In 2023, there were 5.3 million people in Ireland. This is expected to grow by 15% to 6.1 million by 2040. Approximately 87,000 people were aged 85 years and over, projected to more than double by 2040 to 204,000 people. Older age groups tend to use healthcare services more frequently and for longer durations. Bed day rates for males aged 90 years and over are 8,250 per 1,000 population, while females are 6,203 per 1,000 population. This compares to adults under 49, for whom the rates are less than 500 per 1,000 population.
Minister Carroll MacNeill said:
“I am grateful to the ESRI for this report, which highlights the capacity challenges we face in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population. This evidence base is crucial for future planning, ensuring we have the facilities to provide the best care to patients. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce requires careful long-term planning.
“I am pleased that we are already making significant strides to increase patient capacity. Between 2020 and 2024, we opened 1,218 new acute inpatient beds, and the Programme for Government has committed to delivering thousands more through the acute bed capacity expansion plan, new surgical hubs, and elective treatment centres. With unprecedented uplift in funding and workforce increases in recent years, we are targeting future capital investment where it is needed most.
“While the required capacity increase is substantial, ESRI’s report also considers health policies that reduce potential demand. Investing in improved population health, increased productivity, and reducing avoidable hospitalisations will help us make the best use of bed capacity in the future. Continued implementation of Sláintecare will shift care away from hospital settings, better meeting future demand and delivering care to those who need it.
“We are still dealing with the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. The disruption it caused to health services—and its effects—will likely be felt for a long time. This Capacity Review, a joint effort by the Department of Health and the HSE, reflects our commitment to responsive, agile, and evidence-based capacity planning, helping to deliver the best care to patients. With the Hippocrates projection model and our ongoing relationship with the ESRI, our planning process can be more responsive to new data, evidence, and policies as they emerge.”
The Department of Health is committed to building a demand and capacity modelling capability, necessary for any modern health system, as part of the ongoing collaboration between ESRI and the Department of Health. The report being published today is the first of a series of Capacity Review reports on Ireland’s health service. Today’s report on acute hospitals will be followed by two further reports, on general practice services and older persons care, with regional analysis being developed for later this year.