Press Release: Wednesday 18 June 2025
Minister for Health welcomes publication of ESRI’s Health Service Capacity Review report on future capacity requirements for GP services
Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill TD has today welcomed publication of the second Health Service Capacity Report produced by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on behalf of the Department of Health. The report projects future demand for general practice services in Ireland to 2040. It confirms that our growing and ageing population, along with the shift to provide greater care in community-based settings, will drive a substantial increase in demand for GP services. This will require a corresponding increase in the number of GPs and GP Nurses.
The report sets out the level of increased demand and identifies a need for between 943 and 1,211 additional GPs and between 761 and 868 additional GP Nurses by 2040, based on the existing consultation ratios. A lower number of GP consultations – due to increasing complexity or shorter working hours – would require a greater number of GPs.
In 2023, there were 5.3 million people in Ireland. This is expected to grow by 15% to 6.1 million by 2040. Approximately 87,000 people were aged 85 years and over, projected to more than double by 2040 to 204,000 people. Older age groups tend to use healthcare services more frequently and for longer durations.
Minister Carroll MacNeill said:
“The report will make an important contribution to our work in increasing the supply of GPs, GP Nurses and other staff essential to general practice over the next fifteen years. The report highlights the challenge we face in ensuring that our population continues to have access to quality GP services.
“We are already expanding GP training places by 80% since 2019, now offering 350 places annually. Through the International Medical Graduate programme, developed in cooperation with the ICGP, we are recruiting GPs internationally, particularly for rural areas.
“Government spending on general practice has risen from €560 million in 2019 to €955 million in 2024, a 70% increase. This funding supports the 2019 and 2023 GP Agreements, including the Chronic Disease Management Programme, increased support for practice staff, and expanded free GP care for children aged 6 and 7 and those earning up to the median household income.
“The ongoing Strategic Review of General Practice, due to complete its work this year, will outline new ways to ensure we have the capacity to provide essential GP services.
“More also needs to be done to increase capacity across primary care and other services in the community to provide additional choice and access to services for people. This is why we are also focused on expanding the role of pharmacy through implementing recommendations made by the Expert Taskforce to Support the Expansion of the Role of Pharmacy in Ireland. Since last year, pharmacists can extend prescription validity from six to twelve months under certain conditions. We’re also working to establish a Common Conditions Service in community pharmacies. These steps will enhance community healthcare capacity.”
The Department of Health is committed to building a demand and capacity modelling capability, necessary for any modern health system, as part of the ongoing collaboration between ESRI and the Department of Health. The report being published today is the second of a series of Capacity Review reports on Ireland’s health service. The first report, on public acute hospitals, was published on 28 May 2025, and the third report, on older persons care, will be published shortly. The ESRI will also publish further regional analysis later this year.